Samples in the Dredged Rock and Core collection - Photo: Marc Tule Research Themes
Approach to the Problems
In
the face of the complexity of environmental threats, traditional
boundaries between disciplines have done more harm than good, and
academic "business as usual" will be inadequate. Using an inter-disciplinary approach, SIO students work
alongside social science Ph.D. students to learn how
to have an impact on critical issues in a complex world. We expect that
the result of these collaborative efforts will be creative solutions
that overcome traditional problems arising from the lack of
understanding between interest groups.
Below, we outline the five central themes to be explored by PhD students. Because developing
a thesis project is part of the graduate learning process, we expect
our students to draw from the various possibilities outlined below in a
way that complements their interests.
Theme 1: Climate Change
Marine ecosystems are continually subject to oscillations in climatic conditions, but the rates of change over the next several centuries are likely to exceed any since the last deglaciation 8,000-10,000 years ago. Human-produced CO2 has resulted in a total anthropogenic increase in air temperature/ Greenhouse effects are partly offset by pollutant aerosols in the atmosphere, so it is likely that as efforts are made to reduce atmospheric pollution, global warming will be magnified. Climate models predict that increased average global temperature will strengthen the hydrologic cycle resulting in more intense droughts and rainfall and stronger tropical storms. Modern hot temperature extremes are also expected to become commonplace by the year 2050.
Research faculty include: Jackson (historical ecological analyses of marine
ecosystem changes over the past several centuries and degradation of
modern coral reefs along gradients of human disturbance); Norris (past changes in pelagic
ecosystems); Keeling, J. Severinghaus and C. Charles (Holocene and late Pleistocene climate variability); Sugihara (climate
change and fisheries); Oreskes (history of scientific and
political awareness of global change); Barlow and Ballance (biological
effects of regime shifts in the oceanic tropics); Driscoll (coastal
processes and sedimentation related to climate change); and Herrick
(SWFSC - climate change and the economics of the world's fisheries).
Theme 2: Sea Level Rise:
Sea level rise is expected to have major impacts on human societies in the coming centuries. Marine and terrestrial ecosystems are likely to be strongly affected by flooding of coastal wetlands, flooding of atolls and low-lying islands, and changes in exposure of coastal areas to storm surge and saltwater intrusion. Sea level has risen by ~3.1 mm/year since 1993 for a total rise of 17 cm in the 20th Century and has been caused by thermal expansion associated with global warming, loss of mountain glaciers, and mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The potential failure of a large ice mass, such as Greenland, could raise sea level about 6 m. While there are significant uncertainties about the rapidity of future sea level rise, even moderate increases in sea level may affect distribution of intertidal habitat, sand supply to beaches, persistence of coastal wetlands, coastal flooding, and rates of coastal erosion.
Research faculty include: Driscoll (coastal erosion rates and
distribution of sand in nearshore ecosystems); Levin (marsh and bay
marine ecosystem processes and larval dispersal); Jackson (historical
changes in estuarine and reef ecosystems); Squires, Schkade, Gibson and Watson (valuation of
marine and natural resources; Fricker (glacial processes that may
influence sea level on Antarctica and Greenland), W. Berger and D. Woodruff (climate and biological implications of sea
level change).
Theme 3: Ocean Acidification:
Approximately 30% of the carbon dioxide produced by human activities is absorbed by the oceans, where it forms carbonic acid. Recent observations reveal a noticeable increase in acidity of the surface ocean, and models predict that surface ocean acidity will continue to increase over the next several centuries. Once human production of CO2 ceases, it will take tens of thousands of years for ocean chemistry to return to pre-industrial pH, ensuring that acidification is essentially irreversible on human time scales.
 Critical gaps in our understanding are: 1) the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on a wide diversity of marine organisms, including those that do not calcify and 2) a detailed understanding of how marine ecosystems, biogeochemical systems, and resources exploited by humans will be affected by these far-reaching and rapid changes in ocean chemistry.
These scientific challenges introduce significant uncertainties in determining the magnitude of the economic and social impacts of ocean acidification. However, the economic impact on fisheries, tourism, and other uses of ocean resources is estimated to be substantial. Changes in ecosystem structure may well be the most significant changes for economic valuation of marine resources of any of the effects of acidification.
Research faculty include: Dickson and Norris (CO2 chemistry in the modern and ancient oceans); Keeling (history of O-isotope changes over the last several centuries and carbon cycle modeling in the oceans); Severinghaus (long-term history of atmospheric gases); Levin (California larval carbonate shell chemistry); Squires and Herrick (valuation of marine resources, particularly related to fisheries); and Mengerink and Gibson (environmental and international agreements that have parallels with the issues posed by acidification).
Theme 4: Agreements over the Commons and Marine Conservation:
Climate change, sea level rise, and ocean acidification pose critical problems for economic and political systems, in particular for how ocean "commons" are to be managed and resources conserved. Of central importance are global commons, which are not controlled by any single government and where agreements can lack strong external enforcement. Significant progress on global commons will require agreements of much greater scale and scope, and few templates exist. A key objective in addressing the impacts of global change on the oceans is to develop innovative international scientific assessments, policy, and legal frameworks.
Research faculty include: Levin (wetlands restoration and species invasion); Barlow, Mesnick and Ballance (assessment of marine vertebrate populations); Carson, Squires, Groves, and Watson (economics of fisheries and marine conservation and international agreements); Herrick (economic impacts of climate and ecosystem change on fisheries); Oreskes (use of models in public policy); Watson (contracts and institutions); Berman (technical change and the environment); Miller (cooperation with limited information); Kartik (political institutions); Mengerink (conservation law); and Schkade and Carson (negotiation strategies and decision analysis in business and the valuation of natural resources); McIntosh (the environment and development); Clemencon and Gibson (politics of environmental conservation and management).
Theme 5: Resistance to Global Change Science and Policy:
When scientists consider responses to climate change, they envisage rising seas, melting ice, increasing intensity of extreme weather events, and changing ocean chemistry. Social scientists envisage international treaties, carbon taxes and offsets, and cap and trade systems. History shows that when scientists come to conclusions that people do not like, an important response is resistance. Therefore, progress in dealing with climate change will require understanding and responding to resistance.
Historians of science have only recently come to realize the importance of the forces that work against the establishment and acceptance of scientific knowledge. For virtually the entire history of the discipline, academic focus has rested on the development, acceptance, reception, and construction of scientific information. Only recently have scholars begun to think hard about their inverse: resistance, rejection, denial, and even destruction. An important new area of focus for scientists and historians of science: a better understanding of the social, cultural, and political forces that impede the production and acceptance of scientific understanding.
Research faculty include: Oreskes (history of scientific debates on plate tectonics and global change); Sommerville (climate denialists); Jackson through the Shifting Baselines Media Campaign; Peach, Franks, and Dickson (effective science communication;) Shaffer (social and scientific issues involved in sustainability); and Schkade (economic issues related to risk assessment).
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